Flashes of Panic

Finally, the World Marathon Majors have some differentiation in the leader board. Until last weekend, both men and women were bound up in three-way ties for first, fourth, seventh, tenth, and thirteenth, as fifteen men and fifteen women scored in Boston, London or Berlin. Chicago saw the first multi-major scorers, as one man (Robert Cheruiyot, now with a commanding lead in the men’s Majors after winning both Boston and Chicago,) and two women (Berhane Adere, with a narrow five-point lead from her fourth in London and Chicago victory, plus Galina Bogomolova, whose fifth in London and second in Chicago boosts her to fifth in the series) accumulated points from a second race.

The worst-case scenario I pointed out in January—eleven different champions for an eleven-way 25-point tie—won’t be happening. As I said,

…the minimum winning score is at least 26, more than could be scored at any one marathon. The odds that none of [the champions] would have, say, a second or even a fifth somewhere else are vanishingly small; an athlete would need at least two scoring races to have even a freak chance of winning it all. The maximum score is a clean sweep: four wins, 100 points.

But there’s a new worst-case scenario. At the announcement press conference, there was a hypothetical 2004-2005 Majors scored out:

The hypothetical ‘04-‘05 season had Evans Rutto (wins in London and Chicago ‘04, plus a 4th in Chicago ‘05) winning by five points over Jaoud Gharib (3rd in London ‘04, 2nd in London ‘05, 1st in Helsinki World Championships.)

Fifty points out of a possible hundred puts Cheruiyot in a very strong position to win it all; he has as many points as anyone save Rutto has scored in the last few years, and needs only a fourth-place finish somewhere in 2007 to match Rutto’s “winning” tally. There’s a very real possibility that nobody else could approach his score in the remaining seven races for this cycle. Let’s throw out a what-if: what if nobody does? What if no other athlete wins two Majors in this cycle? No big deal… except that Cheruiyot slipped on something at the finish line in Chicago and executed a stunning back-flop in the very moment of winning the race. He hit head-first and was taken to the hospital, where they’re apparently treating him for brain hemorrhages; at the very least, he’s pretty concussed. (And we thought that only happened in contact sports!)

Imagine if he’s too hurt to run next year. He needs to run—and finish—at least one of the six 2007 races to be eligible. What if he doesn’t, and the eligible “winner” winds up with fewer points than he’s already scored? That’s the worst-case scenario, and it’s ugly; imagine the possible recriminations over that lost million. What if he runs but can’t score, and gets nipped by a point or two somewhere? Then there’s the question of what he might have scored had he not fallen.

Ordinarily, an unfortunate accident (even one like Cheruiyot’s, which appears to be no one’s fault) would have everyone at the race hoping for his full recovery. But now there are probably representatives of five entire marathons pulling for Cheruiyot to return to top form in 2007, if only so their jackpot can be won on their courses, not lost in a freak accident at one finish line.