« It could be worse | Main | Evolutionary superiority »

Predicting the unpredictable

Previews are unwritable. I can only hope, after laboring for most of the afternoon with this one, that it isn’t unreadable; I’m so sick of it I could barely bear to sanity-check it (did I finish all my sentences?) before I sent it in. The men’s field for this year’s Boston is so hard to pick a favorite from that everyone is fleeing to the women’s race (which is legitimately exciting) rather than try to make guesses.

And speaking of making guesses, I’ve been amusing myself by comparing weather forecasts. As always, the best reading is the National Weather Service’s “Forecast Discussion,” which explains what mix of computer models they used to create the forecast they’re spreading. That’s usually where they’re brutally honest about what they do and don’t know about the upcoming weather. Today’s is almost schizophrenic as they try to figure out what’s going on with this “anomalous” storm which may drench the marathon. The part I liked the best, yesterday?

TEMPERATURES WILL BE CRITICAL FOR THIS FORECAST…WITH A LOT OF MOISTURE TO COME DOWN. PRESENTLY THINKING THIS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING…AT LEAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS…FOR THE LOWEST 2-3 KFT. AT THIS TIME THINKING MOSTLY RAIN…BUT THE TRACK MAY CHANGE THAT IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

If you read between the lines, that says they have at least considered the possibility that it may snow during the marathon.

Now Playing: The Lone Wolf from Failer by Kathleen Edwards

Technorati Tags: , , , , , , ,

Post a comment