Flashes of Panic

It was the best of series, it was the worst of series? We can start with the worst: Robert Cheruiyot (I’m occasionally impressed with myself for being able to spell that without double-checking somewhere) locked up the ‘06-‘07 World Marathon Majors title with his win in Boston last spring; maybe if someone like Martin Lel managed to win both Chicago and New York this fall, with Cheruiyot no better than fifth, they could knock him off, but that’s about as likely as me qualifying for the Olympic Trials.

On the other hand, the women’s ‘06-‘07 series will be decided in New York next month. Gete Wami has the lead after winning Berlin last weekend, but only by ten points, and second place, Jelena Prokopcuka, is running in New York. And so is Wami. The kind of race the five marathons have been hoping for all along.

Therefore, it’s entirely likely, depending on how those two run, that a “minor place” as far back as fifth may win half a million at the NYCM, notably more than the winner.

A tie goes to the victor in head-to-head competition. The two haven’t faced each other so far in this series, so if Prokopcuka gets enough points to tie (i.e. 10 more than Wami) at the NYCM, she wins. Here are the scenarios which would let Prokopcuka overtake or tie Wami to win:

• Wami 2nd or worse, Prokopcuka 1st
• Wami 4th or worse, Prokopcuka 2nd or better
• Wami 6th or worse, Prokopcuka 3rd or better

Prokopcuka may have an advantage in that Wami just ran Berlin and may not have recovered fully, but there’s some history of runners coming back from late-summer marathons (e.g. the Athens Olympics) and running well at the NYCM.

It actually feels a lot like the 1,500m in a decathlon. I expect we’ll see Prokopcuka and Wami eyeing each other until the pack reaches Manhattan and the real racing begins.

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