Flashes of Panic

When Gete Wami announced that she’d run in New York, a few months ago, I posted a summary of what Jelena Prokupcuka would have to do to take the World Marathon Majors prize away from Wami. (In summary: Prokupcuka needs to beat Wami, with details.)

But right now, Wami is chasing Paula Radcliffe, who is apparently planning on lowering the course record. (At very least, she’s running very, very hard.) Wami, on five weeks rest, therefore has over two minutes’ lead on Prokupcuka. That’s not an insurmountable lead—when you crash, in a marathon, you can fall back very, very quickly—but it certainly makes life difficult for Prokupcuka.

Complicating Prokupcuka’s chances it the fact that this women’s field is not exceptionally deep. Even if Wami falls back, Prokupcuka needs to finish at least third and have Wami at least two places behind her (unless Radcliffe also fades and Prokupcuka can contend for the win.) There may simply not be enough women running fast enough to finish between the Majors contenders, even if Wami fades into the 2:35 range.

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